For the latest news on the impact on the construction industry of recent financial shocks see Hanley Wood's "Housing Crisis" at: http://www.housingcrisis.com/
US Housing Starts Up +2.3% in April (but building permits fall)
Washington, DC - May 16, 2012 - The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for April 2012: BUILDING PERMITS Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 715,000. This is 7.0 percent (±1.0%) below the revised March rate of 769,000, but is 23.7 percent (±1.9%) above the revised April 2011 estimate of 578,000. Single-family authorizations in April were at a rate of 475,000; this is 1.9 percent (±1.1%) above the revised March figure of 466,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 217,000 in April. HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000. This is 2.6 percent (±14.8%) above the revised March estimate of 699,000 and is 29.9 percent (±15.2%) above the revised April 2011 rate of 552,000. Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 492,000; this is 2.3 percent (±11.9%) above the revised March figure of 481,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 217,000.
Washington, DC - May 16, 2012 - After five months of positive readings, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has fallen into negative terrain. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the April ABI score was 48.4, following a mark of 50.4 in March. This score reflects a decrease in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 54.4, down from mark of 56.6 the previous month.
Ottawa, ON - May 7, 2012 - In March, contractors took out building permits worth $6.8 billion, up 4.7% from February following a 7.6% increase the previous month. The gain was the result of higher construction intentions for both institutional and commercial buildings, mostly in Ontario.
Washington, DC - May 1, 2012 - The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during March 2012 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $808.1 billion, 0.1 percent (±1.4%) above the revised February estimate of $807.3 billion. The March figure is 6.0 percent (±1.9%) above the March 2011 estimate of $762.6 billion. During the first 3 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $171.2 billion, 6.7 percent (±1.6%) above the $160.4 billion for the same period in 2011.
Brussels - April 18, 2012 - In the construction sector, seasonally adjusted production fell by 7.1% in the euro area (EA17) and by 3.7% in the EU27 in February 2012, compared with the previous month. In January, production decreased by 0.5% and 3.9% respectively. Compared with February 2011, output in February 2012 dropped by 12.9% in the euro area and by 9.4% in the EU27.
Ottawa, ON - April 11, 2012 - The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was 215,600 units in March, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This is up from 205,300 units in February.
“The upward movement in March was largely due to an increase in multiple starts, particularly in Ontario and the Prairies. This was partly offset by a decrease in multiple starts in British Columbia and Quebec, while single-detached starts decreased marginally country-wide,” said Mathieu Laberge, Deputy Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre.
Washington, DC - March 23, 2012 - Sales of new single-family houses in February 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 313,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.6 percent (±23.9%) below the revised January rate of 318,000, but is 11.4 percent (±17.8%) above the February 2011 estimate of 281,000.
US Construction Starts Down -7% in February (McGraw-Hill)
New York, NY - March 20, 2012 - At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $376.0 billion, new construction starts in February dropped 7% from the previous month, according to McGraw-Hill Construction, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies. The nonbuilding construction sector, comprised of public works and electric utilities, lost considerable momentum in February, and diminished activity was also reported for nonresidential building.
EU Construction Activity Up +0.3% in December (but down -1.1% in 2011)
Brussels - February 17, 2012 - In the construction sector, seasonally adjusted production rose by 0.3% in the euro area (EA17) and fell by 0.4% in the EU27 in December 2011, compared with the previous month. In November, production increased by 0.2% and 0.6% respectively. Compared with December 2010, output in December 2011 increased by 7.8% in the euro area and by 7.4% in the EU27. Compared with 2010, the average construction output index in 2011 decreased by 1.1% in the euro area, but increased by 0.7% in the EU27.
CMHC 1Q 2012 Forecast: Canada’s Housing Market to Remain Steady
Ottawa, ON - February 13, 2012 - The First Quarter 2012 edition of CMHC's "Housing Market Outlook - Canada" is now available:
Housing starts: After an active 2011, multiple starts are expected to moderate while single starts will level off. For 2011, housing starts came in at 193,950 units. Looking ahead, starts are forecast to be 190,000 for 2012 and 193,800 for 2013. Resales: Sales of existing homes through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) are expected to remain stable in 2012 and rise slightly in 2013. For 2011, resales came in slightly over 456,000 units. Moving forward, 457,300 resales are forecast for 2012 and 468,200 for 2013.
Ottawa, ON - February 7, 2012 - Municipalities issued building permits worth $6.8 billion in December, up 11.1% from November. This is the highest level since June 2007. The advance in December was due primarily to an increase in multi-family dwellings in Ontario and commercial buildings in Alberta.
US Construction Spending Up +1.5% in December (Down -2.0% for all of 2011)
Washington, DC - February 1, 2012 - The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during December 2011 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $816.4 billion, 1.5 percent (±1.4%) above the revised November estimate of $804.0 billion. The December figure is 4.3 percent (±1.9%) above the December 2010 estimate of $782.9 billion. The value of construction in 2011 was $787.4 billion, 2.0 percent (±1.1%) below the $803.6 billion spent in 2010.
AIA Consensus Forecast - 2012 Construction Recovery Projected to be Modest
Washington, DC – January 25, 2012 – Despite the lingering effects of an over-built housing market, the continued difficulty to obtain financing for real estate projects, budget shortfalls at state and municipal governments and the anxiety surrounding the prolonged European debt crisis, there are signs that the U.S. design and construction industry will be improving. Corporate profits have returned to pre-recession levels and businesses have subsequently been increasing their capital spending, borrowing costs are at record low levels and pent up demand for commercial and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 2.1% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.4% increase of spending in 2013.
Washington, DC - January 26, 2012 - Sales of new single-family houses in December 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.2 percent (±13.2%) below the revised November rate of 314,000 and is 7.3 percent (±16.6%) below the December 2010 estimate of 331,000.
Harvard Report: US Remodelling Activity to Increase Late in 2012
Cambridge, MA - January 19, 2012 - After a slow start, home improvement spending is expected to trend up later this year, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) released today by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. If this momentum continues to build during the second half of the year, remodeling activity is on course to end 2012 on a positive note.
US Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts Both Fall in December
Washington, DC - January 19th, 2012 - The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for December 2011:
BUILDING PERMITS Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000. This is 0.1 percent (±1.2%) below the revised November rate of 680,000, but is 7.8 percent (±2.2%) above the December 2010 estimate of 630,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 444,000; this is 1.8 percent (±1.2%) above the revised November figure of 436,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 209,000 in December. An estimated 611,900 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2011. This is 1.2 percent (±1.3%) above the 2010 figure of 604,600.
HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000. This is 4.1 percent (±11.6%) below the revised November estimate of 685,000, but is 24.9 percent (±18.3%) above the December 2010 rate of 526,000. Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 470,000; this is 4.4 percent (±11.3%) above the revised November figure of 450,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 164,000. An estimated 606,900 housing units were started in 2011. This is 3.4 percent (±2.4%) above the 2010 figure of 586,900.
Washington, DC - January 18, 2012 - After showing struggling business conditions for most of 2011, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has now reached positive terrain in consecutive months. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the December ABI score was 52.0, following the exact same mark in November. This score reflects an overall increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 64.0, down just a point from a reading of 65.0 the previous month.
Ottawa, ON - January 10, 2012 - The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was 200,200 units in December, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This is up from 185,600 units in November 2011.
CMHC 2012 Canada Housing Forecast Update is 186,750 Units
Ottawa, ON - November 4, 2011 - In recent months, housing starts have been supported by low interest rates and an improving employment situation. They are, however, expected to moderate through 2012. Housing starts are forecast to be 191,000 units for 2011 and 186,750 units for 2012.
Housing in Canada - Speech by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada
Vancouver, BC - June 15, 2011 - Full text and charts of a speech entitled: "Housing in Canada" delivered to the Vancouver Board of Trade, by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada http://bit.ly/j5jmKH
Canadian Housing Starts Up in January (total 189,930 in 2010)
Ottawa, ON - February 8, 2011 - The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was 170,400 units in January, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This is up from 169,000 units in December 2010. According to final figures, actual housing starts for 2010 totalled 189,930 units, with activity moderating towards demographic fundamentals by the final quarter of 2010.
Canadian Building Permits Up 2.4% in December - Up 19.8% in 2010
Ottawa, ON - February 7, 2011 - The value of building permits increased 2.4% to $5.7 billion in December, following two consecutive months of declines. The increase was mainly attributable to higher construction intentions for multi-family dwellings in Ontario.
Washington, DC - February 1, 2011 - The US Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during December 2010 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $787.9 billion, 2.5 percent (±1.3%) below the revised November estimate of $807.8 billion. The December figure is 6.4 percent (±1.6%) below the December 2009 estimate of $841.8 billion. The value of construction in 2010 was $814.2 billion, 10.3 percent (±1.0%) below the $907.8 billion spent in 2009.
US Building Permits Up in December, but Housing Starts Decrease
Washington, DC - January 19, 2011 - The US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for December 2010:
BUILDING PERMITS Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000. This is 16.7 percent (±2.1%) above the revised November rate of 544,000, but is 6.8 percent (±2.8%) below the December 2009 estimate of 681,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 440,000; this is 5.5 percent (±2.3%) above the revised November figure of 417,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 172,000 in December.
HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000. This is 4.3 percent (±14.1%) below the revised November estimate of 553,000 and is 8.2 percent (±14.4%) below the December 2009 rate of 576,000. Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 417,000; this is 9.0 percent (±11.7%) below the revised November figure of 458,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 102,000.
Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University releases new report: "Understanding the Boom and Bust in Non-Prime Mortgage Lending"
Cambridge, MA - September 27, 2010 - The boom and bust in nonprime and nontraditional mortgage lending in the United States is without precedent. The factors that fueled the boom and the way it unfolded sowed the seeds for what, in hindsight, appears to be an inevitable bust.
Canada's Construction Sector to Emerge from Recession "Unscathed"
Ottawa, ON - January 12, 2010 - Canada's construction industry is emerging from the recession relatively unscathed, thanks to its pre-recession record levels of investment and the more recent government stimulus initiatives. A preview of the Construction Sector Council's (CSC) 2010-2018 scenario-based forecast says that though building and employment decreased from October 2008 to July 2009, employment has been rising since August. This will likely continue because of new infrastructure projects, renovation and maintenance work, and strengthening housing starts.
Cleveland, OH - December 2, 2009 - by James MacGee for the Federal Reserve Bank of Clevelend: Housing markets in the United States and Canada are similar in many respects, but each has fared quite differently since the onset of the financial crisis. A comparison of the two markets suggests that relaxed lending standards likely played a critical role in the U.S. housing bust.
Productivity Swings and Housing Prices (by James Kahn)
New York, NY - July 9, 2009 - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released "Productivity Swings and Housing Prices", the latest article in its series Current Issues in Economics and Finance. Challenging the notion that bubbles and lax lending standards can fully explain the recent housing crisis, author James A. Kahn argues that economic fundamentals—specifically, swings in labor productivity—played a significant role in the boom and bust of residential investment.
ASCE: Failing Infrastructure Cannot Support A Healthy Economy
Washington, DC - January 28, 2009 - Decades of underfunding and inattention have jeopardized the ability of our nation’s infrastructure to support our economy and facilitate our way of life. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) today released its 2009 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure—assigning a cumulative grade of D to the nation’s infrastructure and noting a five-year investment need of $2.2 trillion from all levels of government and the private sector. Since ASCE’s last assessment in 2005 there has been little change in the condition of the nation’s roads, bridges, drinking water systems and other public works, and the cost of improvement has increased by more than half a trillion dollars.
Architecture Billings Index as a Leading Indicator of Construction Spending
January 28, 2009 (www.CalculatedRiskBlog.com) - The blog site "CalculatedRisk" examines the close correlation between the American Institute of Architects' leading indicator the "Architectural Billing Index", and non-residential construction spending in the US. The graphs prepared by the author are worth examining.
Anatomy of a Meltdown: The Credit Crisis (by The Washington Post)
Washington, DC - June 17, 2008 - The Washington Post has completed (over the past three days) publication of what it calls the first comprehensive narrative explaining the US housing market collapse. If you follow directions to the web site below, the two journalists behind the series - Alec Klein and Zachary Goldfarb - describe how efforts to counter the 1990s bubbles pumped air into the housing market and set the stage for what became one of the biggest financial crises of the new century.
ASCE Blue Ribbon Panel – New Orleans Disaster Result of Bad Decisions
Reston, VA - June 4, 2007 - The American Society of Civil Engineers report: “The New Orleans Hurricane Protection System: What Went Wrong and Why" concludes that Katrina's damage was made worse by years of poor decisions. The report – released on the first day of hurricane season - details the in-depth review by the ASCE Hurricane Katrina External Review Panel of the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force (IPET).
